This post is trending because it articulates a deep-seated anxiety many Koreans feel about the escalating housing crisis and the uncertain future of traditional rental systems like *jeonse*, which are central to Korean life. It taps into a collective frustration with perceived ineffective government policies and the seemingly unstoppable rise in property values.
A recent post on a Korean online community has sparked a heated debate, tapping into the widespread anxiety surrounding the future of Korea's housing market. The original author expresses a common sentiment: everyone knows the housing situation is getting out of hand, but no one seems to be talking about the real implications. They question if endlessly rising home prices are truly 'normal' and predict that politicians will continue to offer stop-gap solutions like 'infinite contract renewal rights' (Gye-yak-gaeng-sin-cheong-gu-gwon), only for things to spiral even further into chaos. The feeling is that the current trajectory is leading to an unpredictable, almost 'Andromeda-level' future for housing in Korea, especially for the unique *jeonse* and *wolse* rental systems that define the market.
🇰🇷 KOREAN REACTIONS 8
The supply of *jeonse* and *wolse* seems to be shrinking, but for-sale listings are exploding! Landlords seem desperate to offload properties, but will all those listings actually get sold?
With population decline and a simultaneous drop in the economically active population, a real estate crash is guaranteed. In just 10 years, the number of 30-40 year olds who can afford to buy a house will be cut in half.
@iohc, for housing prices to rise stably, the economically active population needs to grow. But it's continuously shrinking, so there won't be anyone with money to buy expensive homes.
@TigerWoods, that population decline will mostly affect regional areas. As regional populations shrink, infrastructure will decay, and people will move to places with better infrastructure. The ultimate destination will be the *Sudogwon* (Capital Region). You said 10 years, but with this kind of migration, housing demand will probably be maintained for at least 50 years.
Can't you see human extinction coming?
I think it's highly unlikely *jeonse* and *wolse* will go extinct. There will always be people who need to rent and people who need to rent out. After about 1.7 million homes are sold, sales might continue but the number of buyers will drastically decrease. My reasoning comes from past Korean statistics: regardless of whether prices were high or low, the homeownership rate has consistently stayed around 59% to 65%.
It's not absurd because there are countries that actually do that, like Germany. Who knows about the future, but compared to its economic size, German housing prices are somewhat suppressed. It's hard to evict tenants, and if you raise rent too much, you can get sued. Naturally, if it's hard to raise monthly rent, housing price increases are suppressed, even with 100% mortgages. Oh, and *jeonse* and *wolse* won't disappear. Seoul's *jeonse* and *wolse* might decrease, but Seoul isn't the whole country.
*Jeonse* will go extinct, but *wolse* won't. If *wolse* goes up, won't the next step be the popularization of share houses?